Why I always set my support under a moving average.

$SPY notice that it is sitting right on 50ma. There are 2 kind of traders. One that is certain that it will drop once it breaks 138.73, and those who believe that 138.73 will hold. Both never put some margin of error when approaching a moving average.

For me 138.73 is insignificant, I believe that we will bounce short term once we reach 138.63, that will make the trader who goes short just under 138.73 get stopped, and not enough confidence to the trader that was expecting 138.73 to bounce.

In other words these are the traders that get stopped the most. But overall I think the trend is down, and if we don’t have an instant morning flush, it will eventually happen in the afternoon. At least so far it looks like that.